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It seems feasible that wear out could occur, and there is evidence to suggest that it does. The Australian Government evaluation¹ concluded that "there is evidence of wear out and some smokers have suggested the need to update some of the health warnings with new graphic images to strengthen their effectiveness and possibly changing warning design aspects to revitalise the strategy" (P21) 

1.  Evaluation of the Effectiveness of the Graphic Health Warnings on Tobacco Product Packaging 2008 Executive Summary (Government Report) .